Today’s WASDE report was a non-event as far as the corn balance sheet. The only change was a slight decrease in the 2012/13 season-average price estimate, from $7.60/bu. to $7.40/bu.
However, there were some important surprises on the global side. Global coarse grains production was increased 7.9 million metric tons, as China reported a much larger-than-expected corn crop (4% larger than the November estimate). Canadian corn output was also revised higher. The estimated size of Brazil’s corn crop was unchanged, while Argentina saw a slight decrease. Overall, traders were looking for a minor decrease in global corn output and instead they got a 1.2% increase.
Total global grain supplies were raised slightly to 2705.6 MMT, the second-largest on record.
- The U.S. ethanol industry is projected to use 78.9 MMT (net DDGS), meaning just 2.92% of the world grain supply is consumed for U.S. ethanol—the lowest rate in 5 years.
- Further, more grain will be available for non-ethanol use than any other time in history with the single exception of last year.
- In fact, grain available for non-ethanol use in 2012/13 will be 15% higher than 10 years ago in 2003/04. Meanwhile global population grew 9.8% during this period.